Bernie’s wins yesterday were certainly encouraging, while only his loss in Massachusetts was a bit of a surprise. Hillary Clinton won 7 of the 11 States at issue; but 5 of the States she won, Tennessee, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia, were states the Democratic Party is highly likely to lose in the general election. The other two are States in which Bernie is likely to do very well in the general election, if he is the party nominee. So, nothing in Super Tuesday results changes the fundamental dynamic of the contest for the Democratic Party’s nomination.

That dynamic depends on whether Democratic Party leaders and office holders come to believe that Hillary will doom them to defeat in the fall elections. And that, in turn depends on how the campaign impacts her negatives going forward.

As I said yesterday before the votes were in, and anticipating Hillary Clinton’s victories: her very victories (as well as Trump’s) now mean that they will increasingly focus on one one another’s negatives, attempting to drive them up. Over the next two weeks, both will succeed at that.

So, by March 15 and as the campaign goes forward after that, where will Hillary’s unfavorability ratio and her lead over Trump stand? If, at some point, the first is a 3-2 ratio, and the second is 45-55, while Bernie’s lead over Trump in polling is 57-43, then Hillary will be in trouble regardless of how big a lead in delegates she has then.

Democrats will stick with her if she is losing to Trump by 10 points, if they have no alternative. But, if they have Bernie in the contest, with his positives strongly outweighing his negatives, as well as a sizable lead over Trump, I wonder if anyone will then follow her over the cliff, rather than turn towards a likely winning candidate?

My guess is that they will not stick with her, but will begin, increasingly to turn to Bernie, and that Hillary will not go into the convention with a clear majority of the delegates. So, if my theory of the dynamics of the campaign is right, we should begin to see a swing back to Bernie on March 8 in Michigan, where, in part due to regional cultural differences, it is unlikely that African-American voters will vote for Hillary in similar proportions to those they gave her in the southern primaries.

Then later, on March 15, when 792 delegates are at stake, Bernie should do much better than he has thus far, providing encouragement for him to re-double his efforts over the longer haul. Everyone should remember that after March 15, there are still nearly 2500 delegates to be won in primaries and caucuses. And, in addition, the will of the super delegates is not yet cast in stone, and Hillary’s big lead among them could quickly melt away, if the scenario I’ve laid out becomes reality.